Technical Analysis: Week 11, 2026
(GBP/USD | BTC/USD | 225/JPY)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead - 16 March 2026
Markets spent last week entirely in the grip of the Middle East conflict, as oil prices swung from $120 to $85 and back to $100 in the space of five days. Everything else, including US CPI, UK GDP and corporate earnings, was background noise.
The week ahead sees the Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE all deliver policy decisions. Crude supply remains severely disrupted, and markets are still trying to price in what a prolonged conflict actually means for inflation, growth, and rates.
Week in Review
News & Macro
Oil's Wild Ride Crude opened the week at $120 as hardliners consolidated power in Iran and attacks on neighbouring oil facilities followed Israeli strikes on fuel depots in Tehran. Iran's threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed triggered one of the largest intraday moves in crude on record. By Tuesday, Trump's comments that the war was progressing well pushed prices back below $85. They ended the week around $100 as the market settled into an uneasy standoff.
Supply Response The G7, IEA and OPEC met during the week, acknowledging the largest disruption to crude supply on record and agreeing to release 400 million barrels from reserves over the next four months. It steadied sentiment — temporarily. Gulf states have begun curtailing production because they simply cannot export from the Gulf, and attempts by cargo vessels to transit the Strait ended when five ships were struck by projectiles on Wednesday and Thursday.
Central Banks Expectations Rate expectations swung dramatically through the week. Markets briefly priced in 50 basis points of ECB hikes on Monday before erasing them entirely. By Friday, traders had settled on roughly one ECB hike in the coming months. Fed cut expectations also collapsed — markets now see near 50-50 odds of just a single cut this year. US CPI came in unchanged, as expected, doing little to shift the narrative either way.
Tech Holds Up Oracle's midweek earnings helped reassure markets that AI infrastructure demand remains solid, keeping the tech sector relatively resilient. Adobe was the outlier — shares fell sharply after the CEO announced his departure, stoking broader concerns about the software sector.
Price Action Snapshot
- Brent Crude: $120 high to $85 low, settling around $100
- US Dollar Index: Topped a four-month high at 100.00 on safe-haven demand
- EUR/USD: Fell to a July 2025 low below 1.1500
- USD/JPY: Continued yen weakness, approaching 160.00 with increasingly urgent warnings from Japanese officials
- Gold: Trended lower for a second week despite the risk-off environment
- S&P 500: Third straight weekly decline, now roughly 5% off January's record high
- DJIA: Worst performing US index as higher rates and energy costs hit industrials hard
- DAX 40: Rebounded strongly off lowest since May ‘25
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
Strait of Hormuz — The Only Number That Matters The US Navy has indicated it is unlikely to be able to escort vessels through the Strait until the end of the month. Until that changes, crude supply remains severely constrained and every headline out of the region will move markets. Watch for any signals from Trump on further measures to alleviate supply disruption.
The Fed — Dot Plot in Focus (Wednesday) The Fed is universally expected to hold. The more interesting question is what happens to the dot plot — the last version showed expectations of one cut this year, which is now slightly more dovish than where the market sits. Any shift hawkward, even a subtle one, could move yields and the dollar meaningfully. Powell's press conference will be scrutinised for how the Fed is framing the energy inflation risk versus the growth risk. It is also his second-to-last meeting before his term expires in May, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over.
ECB (Thursday) Also expected to hold, but President Lagarde's tone will matter. Markets will be listening for any warning that inflation is moving away from its "good place." EUR/USD is already at a July 2025 low below 1.1500 — a hawkish surprise could provide some support, but the path of least resistance remains lower with 1.1393 now exposed.
BOE — Cut in Doubt (Thursday) Before the Iran escalation, economists were fairly confident the BOE would cut in a narrow 5-4 vote with Governor Bailey casting the deciding ballot. That's now much less certain — higher energy prices may be enough to tip the vote toward holding. UK labour data lands just before the decision, with January unemployment expected unchanged at 5.2%. Cable is sitting at December lows; a hold could push it toward 1.3000 if bulls can't reclaim 1.3300.
BOJ (Wednesday) Expected to hold but maintain a hawkish tone as officials try to arrest yen weakness. USD/JPY is approaching 160.00 — a level that has previously triggered intervention warnings. A rejection here could form a double top, at least in the short term. Japan's PM Takaichi travels to the US during the week, adding a geopolitical dimension to an already loaded agenda.
RBA (Tuesday) Markets are leaning toward a hold after the surprise hike at the last meeting, but comments from Governor Bullock earlier this month combined with persistent housing inflation keep a 25bp hike on the table. A pause is likely to come with a hawkish statement, potentially reopening the path to 0.7200 on AUD/USD. A hike would be the more significant surprise.
Economic Calendar
- Monday: Canadian CPI
- Tuesday: Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment; RBA Decision
- Wednesday: Fed Decision & Dot Plot; Japan Trade Balance; US Core PPI; BOJ Decision
- Thursday: ECB Decision; BOE Decision; Japanese Machinery Orders
- Friday: Chinese Loan Prime Rate
Earnings
A quieter week on the earnings front, but several names worth watching:
- Lululemon — consumer spending read in a stressed macro environment
- Micron — semiconductor demand and AI infrastructure appetite
- Alibaba — China consumer health and tech regulatory backdrop
- Accenture — enterprise IT spending and AI adoption
- FedEx — global trade volumes and logistics costs
- General Mills / Carnival — consumer staples and discretionary spending in an inflationary environment
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Sterling (GBP/USD)
Setup
Bearish
- Approaching 1.30-31 - long term range support
- 200 day SMA has acted as resistance
- Daily chart is in a downtrend, under down-trendline
- Price below 20/50/200 SMAs
- Fair value gap on 1-hr chart
Strategy
- Sell retest of 1.33 / FVG
- Sell break of 1.35
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Setup
Bearish
- Monthly chart took out prior low at 75k
- Daily chart shows possible flag after steep drop
- Price under 200 SMA
- 20/50 SMAs show consolidation
- 75k first possible resistance then 81-84k
Strategy
- Sell retest of 75000
- Wait for bigger rebound above 80k
Nikkei 225 (225/JPY)
Setup
Bullish
- Steep drop from 60,000 round number
- Price still above rising 200 SMA - uptrend
- Below 20/50 SMAs - correction
- Strong rebound off 51000 support
- Price below 20/50/200 day SMAs
Commentary
The long term uptrend in EUR/GBP looks to be resuming after a bullish month and inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart
Strategy
- Buy break of 54,000
- Wait for bigger drop to 48,000 / 200 SMA
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
