Technical Analysis: Week 40, 2025
(EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights. It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
6 - 12 October 2025
Markets enter the second week of October against a backdrop of political gridlock in the US, a thin economic calendar, and upcoming earnings that could help shape sentiment. Here’s your digest of last week’s moves and what’s on deck.
Week in Review
News
- US government shutdown: Congress failed to agree on a budget, halting the release of most official economic data. The Fed, as a self-funded institution, remains fully operational.
- EZ inflation: Eurozone flash CPI rose to 2.2% (from 2.0%), broadly in line with forecasts, likely keeping the ECB on hold.
- RBA hawkish hint: The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged but flagged “persistent” inflation in its statement, leading markets to scale back expectations of a rate cut this year.
- China PMI: Official manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.8, still below the 50 expansion threshold.
- France politics: Prime Minister Lecornu is struggling to push through a budget, raising speculation that President Macron could eventually be forced into a snap election.
Price Action
- Gold: Surged to fresh record highs following the US shutdown, but trimmed gains after hawkish Fed commentary
- Oil: Logged its sharpest weekly drop in more than three months amid talk that OPEC+ may increase production in November.
- Japanese yen: Strongest-performing G10 currency after BOJ dove Noguchi suggested rate hikes may be warranted, signalling a growing hawkish tilt at the central bank.
- Small Caps: The Russell 2000 index hit a record high
Week Ahead: Key Events
- FOMC Minutes – 8 Oct
September’s 25bps cut was widely backed, but divisions remain. The minutes could show what conditions the Fed needs to see before the next cut. Any emphasis on inflation risks could lead markets to scale back expectations of two more cuts this year. - RBNZ Rate Decision – 9 Oct
Markets expect a 25bps cut, though some see a risk of 50bps. A dovish statement could send NZD lower towards 0.5750, while a hawkish surprise could push it to 0.59. - Canada Jobs Report – 11 Oct
Unemployment expected at 7.1% with +15k jobs added. A weak print would reinforce the BoC’s dovish tilt, potentially keeping USDCAD above 1.40.
Other Data
- Monday: Swiss jobless rate
- Tuesday: Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Canada Ivey PMI
- Wednesday: Australia NAB business confidence
- Thursday: Germany trade balance
- Friday: US Michigan consumer sentiment (if not delayed by the shutdown)
Earnings Calendar
- Imperial Brands – Tue, 7 Oct (Q4 2025)
Shares doubled since 2023 lows. Watch: NGP growth and new CEO Paravicini’s first outing. - Constellation Brands – Tue, 7 Oct (Q2 2026)
Berkshire Hathaway-backed brewer at 5-year lows. Watch: downgraded guidance and tariff impact. - PepsiCo – Thu, 9 Oct (Q3 2025)
Stock stable, margins in focus. Watch: EPS expected $2.26, volumes under pressure.
- Levi Strauss – Thu, 9 Oct (Q3 2025)
Shares rebounded strongly this year. Watch: tariff resilience, EPS 28–30c guidance.
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.
EUR/JPY
Setup
Bearish: Potential long term top.
- Bearish engulfing candlestick from multi-year highs
- RSI has dropped from 70 overbought
Signal
Fakeout: Looking for rebound to stall near the former resistance at 174.
- RSI bearish divergence, taken out support
- Caution: uptrend line has held so far. A break would confirm trend reversal.
EUR/GBP
Setup
Bullish. Potential breakout
- Cup & Handle pattern
Signal
Awaiting daily close above 0.875 resistance for confirmation of breakout
- Price has formed a base underneath 0.875, holding above the 100 SMA
- RSI maintains a bullish range
WTI Crude Oil
Setup
Bearish. Breakdown
- Bearish engulfing candle
- Failure at key 65.0 pivot
Signal
Looking to sell while price holds below support-turned-resistance at 62.
(Watch for possible intraday fakeout above 62 before daily close lower)
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us OR send us a request!
Trade with WeTrade!
Every position closed is one step closer to unlocking WeTrade Honours privileges and redeeming exclusive rewards.
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
