Technical Analysis: Week 46, 2025
(Bitcoin | GBP/USD | Dow Jones)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights. It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
17 - 23 November, 2025
Global markets enter the week with attention firmly centred on Nvidia’s earnings, now the single most influential event for equity sentiment after one of tech’s worst stretches in years.
Inflation remains a major theme, with key CPI releases from the UK, Japan and Canada, while the Fed minutes arrive amid uncertainty caused by the recent US data blackout. The government shutdown has ended, but the backlog of delayed data still weighs on market visibility.
Week In Review
News
US government reopens:
The 43-day shutdown ended, restoring federal pay, reactivating transport systems and allowing the BLS to prepare a revised release schedpule. Markets welcomed the resumption of proper economic visibility.
Divergent central-bank signals:
FOMC speakers delivered conflicting commentary about a December cut, keeping pricing near 50/50. In the UK, a run of softer macro data—including a rise in unemployment to 5%, weaker GDP, and a sharp industrial production drop—tilted expectations toward a December BOE cut.
UK macro slowdown:
GDP growth of 0.1% (vs 0.3% expected) and industrial output at –2.0% underscored deteriorating momentum ahead of the Autumn Budget.
Price Action
Equities:
Tech stocks remained heavy, extending the prior week’s sizeable declines. Broader indices were mixed with early gains getting reversed later in the week.
Commodities:
Gold rolled-over in the last two sessions, reversing earlier strength. Oil held steady after recent softness.
FX:
The Swiss franc outperformed on haven flows. The yen weakened in spite of hotter inflation expectations. GBP held near the lower end of its early-November range.
Big Themes
Tech uncertainty intensifies:
Michael Burry’s criticism of aggressive accounting assumptions across parts of AI and cloud spending has sharpened scrutiny just as Nvidia reports. With questions over circular AI capex and overstated GPU lifespans already circulating, this week’s results are arriving into a market that has become more sceptical about how much of the AI boom is real demand versus financial engineering.
Equities stretched and vulnerable:
Global equity indices, particularly US large-cap tech, remain overbought after a near seven-month rally. Last week’s tech-led pullback exposed fragility, and Nvidia’s update now holds disproportionate influence over whether the market stabilises, corrects further, or attempts a renewed leg higher.
US dollar softens as data visibility returns:
The reopening of the US government finally clears the path for delayed BLS data to re-enter the calendar. The dollar has weakened into the event risk, with markets anticipating softer Q4 momentum once the numbers land. Fresh data could either validate the move or reverse it quickly.
Gold at a potential turning point:
After surging on shutdown-related uncertainty, gold has rolled over in the last two sessions, raising the prospect that last week marked a short-term top unless prices reclaim the $4,100–$4,150 zone. Fed minutes, US data resumption, and any shift in rate-cut probabilities remain the key catalysts.
Earnings Calendar
Nvidia (Q3 FY26) – Wednesday, 19 Nov — Main Event of the Week
The company guides for ~$54bn revenue and a 1ppt margin uplift, with investors dissecting data-centre growth, the Rubin architecture timeline and the $100bn OpenAI infrastructure partnership.
The arrangement has drawn scrutiny over potentially circular cashflows and whether AI-capex forecasts rely on overstated GPU-lifespan assumptions. Given the tech sector’s sharp pullback, Nvidia’s tone could set direction for global equities into month-end.
Walmart (Q3 FY26) – Thursday, 20 Nov:
Q2 EPS missed slightly at $0.68 but revenue rose 4.8%. E-commerce grew strongly at +26%. FY guidance was raised, though Q3 could reflect temporary spending constraints linked to reduced SNAP benefits during the shutdown.
Economic Calendar
UK CPI (October) – Wednesday, 19 Nov:
Headline CPI has held at 3.8% for three months. Markets expect a modest easing to 3.7%. Core CPI seen at 3.4%. With two CPI prints before the December MPC meeting, the key question is how much deceleration is needed to move Governor Bailey toward a cut.
Fed Minutes – Wednesday, 19 Nov:
The Fed cut 25bp to 4%, but with a three-way split and Powell cautioning that a December cut is not guaranteed. The minutes should clarify how policymakers interpreted the shutdown-related data blackout and the recent re-acceleration in US CPI to 3%.
UK Retail Sales (October) – Friday, 21 Nov:
After strong summer readings, a pullback to –0.2% is expected as consumers delay spending ahead of the Budget. Last year saw four consecutive monthly declines from October to January.
Japan CPI (October) – Friday, 21 Nov:
Expected to rise to 3.1% from 2.9%. Despite this, BOJ commentary has been interpreted as dovish, with only a 25% chance of a December hike. Weak Q3 GDP (–0.4% expected) could strengthen USDJPY.
Canada CPI (October) – Monday, 17 Nov:
Headline CPI seen at 2.4% with the trimmed mean at 3.1%. Softening inflation could reinforce expectations that the BOC pauses further easing, supporting USDCAD toward 1.4150 if 1.4000 holds.
Eurozone Flash PMIs (November) – Friday, 21 Nov:
Manufacturing expected at 50.9; services at 52.3. Key EURUSD levels: 1.1700 resistance, 1.1600 support.
Other releases:
- US existing home sales – Thursday
- Japan trade balance – Wednesday
- Chinese loan prime rate – Thursday
- Canadian retail sales – Friday
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.
GBP/USD
Setup
Bearish - Market top
- Double top
- Failed breakdown at 1.3150 suggests a rebound
Commentary
The broader trend is still basically rangebound with no bearish follow-through under 1.3150 support. Looking for bearish trend to re-accelerate as sellers come back in at higher prices. The risk is a break back through the middle of the old range around 1.34, which would suggest no new downtrend.
Strategy
- Sell rebound towards supply zone starting at 1.33
- Sell on break back under 1.3150 support
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Setup
Bearish - Market top
- Triple top pattern completed - neckline at $100,900
- Closed week under $100k psychological level
Commentary
While arguably, prices are approaching ‘bargain’ levels again in Bitcoin - we are following the trend lower. This is either the start of a new downtrend- or price could simply rebound back into the prior range.
Strategy
- Look for bearish signals at $100,900 support-turned-resistance
- Alternatively, look for the supply zone from $105-108K for bearish signals
Dow Jones (U30/USD)
Setup
Uptrend with bearish reversal signal
- Bearish weekly pin bar (or ‘shooting star’)
- Price still trading above trendline and 50 day SMA
Commentary
Looking for a possible counter-trend trade in line with the weekly bearish candle pattern.
Strategy
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- Option 2: Sell rebound towards 48,000 supply zone
- Option 1: Wait for bearish setup after the break of uptrend line
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us OR send us a request!
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Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
