Technical Analysis: Week 48, 2025
(Silver | GBP/USD | USD/CAD)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights. It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
1 - 7 December, 2025
After a massive rally and its highest weekly close on record, silver is possibly setting up for a long term breakout, maybe as soon as this week.
Markets enter December after a volatile November handover. The dip in US indices has arguably increased the chances of a ‘Santa Rally’ or year-end sentiment might remain dampened by valuation risk and rate cut speculation.
Week in Review
Price Action
• Nasdaq 100 fell ~5% on the week; strong earnings from Nvidia did not offset risk-off pressure tied to AI-valuation concerns.
• November performance divergence saw Europe’s Stoxx 600 record its 5th consecutive positive month.
• CME Group experienced a brief outage late last week, temporarily disrupting flows in energy, metals, FX, Treasuries, and U.S. equity futures pricing.
• Bitcoin halving commentary weighed on crypto sentiment amid expectations long-term holders may adjust exposure into year-end.
Latest News
Since July, private-sector hiring has slowed materially, adding only a net +10k jobs after +42k in October, with wage growth flat at 4.5% (job stayers) and 6.7% (job changers).
• Attention swung to December FOMC policy: Fed futures moved from unlikely toward ~83% implied cut probability for the coming meeting.
• UK October CPI cooled to 3.6% (core 3.4%), and retail sales disappointed, keeping distribution pressure elevated around services hiring decisions.
• The RBNZ delivered a 25bp rate cut with hawkish framing, noting an unchanged hold was also discussed, supporting the NZD/USD upside skew.
• Hardline geopolitical framing from Vladimir Putin influenced crude oil markets late last week, narrowing initial optimism tied to Ukraine peace-framework headlines.
Top Events & Data (1 - 7 December)
UK Services PMI (Nov) – 3 Dec: flash 50.5 (7-month low). Rising caution ahead of budgets paused hiring and new-work decisions; first contraction in new work since July seen.
• ISM Services (Nov) – 3 Dec: flash 55, the highest since July, though employment slowed; input prices rose fastest since Jan 2023, complicating inflation descent narratives.
FYI Interest-Rate Decisions this Month (Before Holidays)
Interest-Rate Decisions (end-of-year meetings)
• Federal Reserve decision (10 Dec): expected to hold or deliver a close call even if payrolls surprise higher, given previous splits and blackout timing.
• European Central Bank (11 Dec): markets price no easing; steady stance viewed as supportive when inflation tracks target.
• Bank of England (18 Dec): markets price ~90% probability of a 25bp cut; sentiment depends on trust, fiscal clarity, and inflation mix.
• Swiss National Bank (11 Dec): scheduled.
• European Leaders Summit (19 Dec): risk-headline window for Europe.
Corporate Updates This Week
- CrowdStrike, Marvell, Salesforce, Kroger and Balfour Beatty.
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.
Silver
Setup
Bullish trend - breakout
- Record highest weekly close
- 161.8% Fibonacci extension sits at almost exactly $60 per oz
- Daily chart testing the top of a triangle pattern
- Price has respected rising trendline
Commentary
Silver looks to have completed its pullback from its October peak, setting up a possible breakout to new record highs. Price could pullback again from resistance at $54 or breakout early in the week, meaning a strategy is needed for each scenario.
Strategy
- Buy breakout above $54 per oz
- Buy pullback to demand area from $51-52 per oz
GBP/USD
Setup
Pullback at the start of new bearish trend
- Bullish engulfing weekly candle pattern
- Follows price hitting 6-month low previous week
- Daily RSI is rebounding from oversold conditions - back over 50
- Main risk is that price returns to range-bound trading
Commentary
A higher low and higher high on the daily chart is not proof of a bullish trend reversal but does show a larger correction (not just a simple pullback) of the downtrend. Former support at 1.33 is now resistance.
Strategy
- Look for bearish reversals near 1.33
- Looks for price to break back below 1.32 to confirm doji star bearish reversal pattern.
USD/CAD
Setup
Bullish - correction
- Weekly chart is still overall bullish after inverse H&S pattern
- An incomplete double top at 1.41 on daily chart shows larger correction of uptrend
- RSI correcting from overbought conditions - still above 50
Commentary
The Loonie is struggling at 1.41 and could present opportunities to buy at lower levels on the dip near the demand zone around 1.39.
Strategy
Option 2: Sell rebound towards 48,000 supply zone
Option 1: Wait for bearish setup after the break of uptrend line
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us OR send us a request!
Trade with WeTrade!
Every position closed is one step closer to unlocking WeTrade Honours privileges and redeeming exclusive rewards.
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
