Technical Analysis: Week 50, 2025
(Silver | NZD/USD | GBP/JPY)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
Week of December 15-19
Markets move into mid-December on the back of a pivotal Fed decision and fresh volatility in the price of silver and AI-linked stocks. News of new QE programme saw the dollar sell-off, helping precious metals and major FX pairs.
US indices pushed to new records as investors rotated into value, but market leadership seems to have weakened beneath the surface. Earnings misses and margin warnings have brought the AI capex story back into question and forced investors to reassess stretched valuations.
Focus now shifts to a packed macro calendar. Key policy decisions from the ECB, BOE, and BOJ arrive alongside US inflation and payroll figures. Precious metals are gaining momentum, tech enthusiasm has cooled, and central bank policy divergence is driving the next phase of market direction.
News
Fed delivers a cut with mixed signals
The FOMC cut rates as expected, but the decision exposed growing divisions. Two dissenters voted to hold, while Chair Powell signalled the Fed may have done enough for now. However, the dot plot still implies at least one cut next year. The Fed also announced a $40bn bond-buying programme focused on short-dated bills, framed as a ‘technical liquidity measure’.
AI confidence shaken by earnings
Oracle’s disappointing sales and Broadcom’s margin warning rattled confidence in the AI trade, dragging on the Nasdaq and reigniting questions around the sustainability of AI investment spending.
UK data disappoints
Sterling slipped after October GDP contracted by –0.1% against expectations for growth, highlighting ongoing weakness in the UK economy. Despite the soft data, the pound still managed to close a third consecutive week higher, supported by broader dollar weakness.
Canada steady, tone slightly hawkish
The Bank of Canada held rates as expected. While the loonie was little changed, USDCAD fell for a third week as the BoC flagged a near-term uptick in inflation.
Price Action
- USD weakened for a third straight week following the Fed decision and more QE.
- Gold climbed to a seven-week high, supported by easing expectations.
- Silver hit a fresh record high
- EUR advanced, mostly on USD weakness
- JPY underperformed despite expectations for a BOJ hike, as JGB yields rose.
- Crude oil trended lower after OPEC raised its supply forecast.
Market Themes to Watch
BOE to Cut Rates amid Sluggish Economy
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates. Markets will focus on the vote split and guidance for 2026 as softer growth increasingly outweighs inflation risks.
- Unemployment expected to rise to 5.1%
- Inflation seen easing further
- GBPUSD has formed a spinning-top candle, with focus below 1.3440 and toward the 1.3300 area
ECB to Hold, But Watch the Tone
Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but any acknowledgement of persistent inflation could fuel speculation of future tightening. A hawkish read may support further euro strength unless key support is reclaimed.
BOJ Set to Hike
Economists broadly expect a 25bp hike, likely accompanied by hawkish messaging. However, expectations for follow-up hikes remain limited. USDJPY remains compressed in a tight range, increasing the risk of a directional break.
US Data Re-enters the Frame
With delayed releases resuming, traders will closely watch November payrolls and CPI for confirmation of slowing momentum in both growth and labour markets.
Top Events in the Week Ahead
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (Tues)
- US retail sales (Tues)
- UK jobs data (Tue)
- UK CPI (Wed)
- ECB rate decision (Thu)
- BOE rate decision (Thu)
- US CPI (Thu)
- BOJ rate decision (Fri)
- UK retail sales (Fri)
Corporate Updates This Week
Lennar, Micron, General Mills, Accenture, Nike, and Currys.
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Silver
Setup
Bullish - record highs - extended uptrend
- Closed over $60 per oz for first time
- Yearly candle chart shows 161.8% Fibonacci extension targets over $70
- Daily chart has price overbought beyond 20 SMA
- RSI overbought +70
Commentary
Silver was the top performer last week as gold gained but remains below record highs. Price looks overextended but the rally could have further to go in the short term.
Strategy
- Buy 1-2 day pullback (aggressive)
- Buy dip to demand zone beginning at 58.50
NZD/USD
Setup
Bullish reversal - potential new uptrend
- Long monthly pin-bar bullish reversal with upside follow-through this month
- Double bottom off 0.56
- Price has broken strongly above 20 & 50 DMA
- Resistance on daily chart at 0.58-0.585
- RSI has reached overbought, signalling new bullish momentum
Commentary
NZD/USD appears to have began a new uptrend but now does not offer a good R:R under resistance. Support sits back at the prior month’s high at 0.575 and to the broken high at 0.569-0.57.
Strategy
- Bull dip at 0.569-0.57
GBP/JPY
Setup
Bullish - overbought - possible bearish correction coming
- The monthly chart is testing key resistance at 208.0.
- Price is very overbought relative to rising trendline connecting major lows
- Short term trendline supporting current steep rise
Commentary
GBP/JPY is in a strong uptrend so any bearish trades should only be taken with caution since there is well-defined support at 205. However, the trend looks overbought on the daily chart so the monthly resistance could hold, at least temporarily.
Strategy
- Sell breakdown from short term trendline
- Buy pullback in at 203-204 support
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
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The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
