Technical Analysis: Week 1, 2026
(Gold | AUD/USD | 100GBP)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
Week of January 5–9, 2026
Markets move into the first full trading week of 2026 following a ‘no show’ Santa rally in December. The FTSE 100 struck 10,000 on Friday, January 2, while European equities also hit a record high. US equities remain close to record highs after a powerful 2025 rally.
Attention now turns to a packed calendar, headlined by the December Non-Farm Payrolls (US employment) report due on Friday, January 9, alongside inflation data and renewed geopolitical uncertainty after Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro was captured and taken to the United States.
With volatility still compressed and positioning extended, the coming week could prove decisive for near-term market direction.
News
Venezuela developments raise geopolitical risk premium
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would place Venezuela under temporary American control following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Investors flagged the announcement as a potential source of heightened geopolitical risk, particularly for oil markets heading into the new year.
Global markets reopen cautiously after holidays
US equity markets reopened on Friday, January 2, following the New Year’s Day closure, with modest gains led by semiconductor stocks. Trading conditions remained thin, with markets in Japan and China still closed for extended holidays, contributing to subdued global liquidity.
Europe and the UK begin 2026 on strong footing
European equities opened the year near record levels, reflecting momentum carried over from 2025. In the UK, the FTSE 100 moved above the 10,000 level for the first time, underscoring renewed investor interest in UK assets despite ongoing domestic economic challenges.
Policy uncertainty remains in focus
Beyond geopolitics, investors continue to monitor unresolved US policy risks, including a pending Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the forthcoming appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair.
Price Action
(Friday, January 2, 2026)
- US Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains in the first trading session of the year, led by technology and semiconductor shares.
- European Equities: Multiple European indices hit all-time highs at the start of 2026, with the FTSE 100 breaching 10,000 for the first time.
- FX: The US dollar stabilised on Friday after sustained weakness through much of 2025, while the euro and British pound eased slightly but remain near multi-year highs.
- Commodities:
- Gold briefly traded above $4,400/oz during Friday’s session before pulling back dramatically
- Silver moved lower during the same session
- Platinum edged higher, while palladium continued efforts to stabilise
Market Themes to Watch
US Jobs Data Takes Centre Stage
The December Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for Friday, January 9, is the central event of the week. Payroll growth is expected near 55,000, down from 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate is forecast to ease from 4.6% to 4.5%.
Markets are increasingly focused on the evolving “low-hire, low-fire” environment, where demographic pressures and tighter immigration rules mean fewer new jobs are required to keep unemployment stable.
- A moderate but stable report could reinforce expectations for a March 2026 rate cut
- A material downside surprise could revive recession concerns and accelerate easing expectations
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
The Federal Funds rate currently sits at 3.5%–3.75% following rate cuts delivered during the final quarter of 2025. Futures markets imply minimal probability of a cut at the January FOMC meeting, but close to a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March. Policymakers remain divided, with inflation still above target and labour market momentum cooling unevenly.
UK Retail “Golden Quarter” Review
UK retailers publish post-Christmas trading updates during the first half of January, offering the clearest read on consumer resilience amid rising employment costs and intensifying grocery price competition.
Asia-Pacific Re-Engages After Holidays
Japan returns from extended New Year holidays during the week beginning January 6, with wage data due midweek that could influence expectations for further policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan.
China releases trade data on January 8 and inflation figures on January 9, with investors watching for signs of persistent deflationary pressure and resilience amid global trade tensions.
Top Events in the Week Ahead
- Tuesday, Jan 6: US JOLTS, ISM Services PMI
- Wednesday, Jan 7: ADP Employment Report, China trade balance
- Thursday, Jan 8: US Jobless Claims
Friday, Jan 9: US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, China CPI
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Gold
Setup
Bullish trend - pullback
- Large bearish engulfing on daily and weekly candle charts
- Price still above 20/50 daily SMAs
- Support from rising trendline
- RSI back near 50 after reaching +80
Commentary
Gold has put in another large daily reversal after touching 4,500, creating a false breakout. Near term the chart looks bearish but the trend is still higher- meaning shorts could work but are high risk.
Strategy
- Buy on daily close back over 4400
- Await larger decline back to 4000
AUD/USD
Setup
Bullish breakout from 6-month price range
- Price has based out above 200 day SMA over 6 months
- Currently trading above 20 day SMA
- Risk of a false breakout
Commentary
The Aussie has broken out of a 6-month price range- continuing its bullish trend since bottoming at 0.60. The daily chart shows a small pullback to resistance-turned support at 0.6680.
Strategy
- Buy on daily close over 0.6700
- Buy any dip to 0.6630
100/GBP
Setup
Bullish - record high
- Rising multi-month trendline
- Closed month above 161.8% Fibonacci extension
- Above 20 day moving average
- RSI bullish but not overbought
- Bearish ‘pinbar’ candle on daily chart at 10K
Commentary
The FTSE 100 has continued its long bullish stretch, touching 10k for the first time. While the index might be due a bigger correction, and there could be profit-taking at 10,000, there is no evidence of one beginning yet.
Strategy
- Buy dips while above rising trendline
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
