Technical Analysis: Week 3, 2026
(Silver | EUR/USD | EUR/JPY)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
Week of January 19, 2026
Geopolitics dominated market sentiment as tensions in Iran escalated, driving safe-haven demand and pushing gold and silver to fresh record highs above $4,600 and $90 respectively. Cooler-than-expected US inflation data and stronger UK growth underpinned risk appetite, helping the UK equity market notch consecutive all-time highs amid a powerful precious metals rally.
A packed macro calendar lies ahead, with China Q4 GDP, UK employment and inflation, and US core PCE set to shape expectations into month-end.
Week in Review
News & Macro Developments
Markets opened cautiously amid geopolitical unrest in Iran, but sentiment was further rattled by reports that the Trump administration had opened a probe into Jerome Powell, reviving concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve. Later in the week, President Donald Trump attempted to calm markets, stating he had no intention of firing Powell, which helped stabilise risk assets.
In Iran, protests intensified early in the week amid a violent crackdown, fuelling fears of potential US military intervention after Trump warned of action to protect protestors. Midweek, rhetoric softened as Washington indicated intervention was on hold, prompting a pullback in crude prices. However, oil rebounded into Friday on reports of a US military build-up in the region.
Economic Data Highlights
- US CPI: Core inflation met expectations at 2.6%, allowing markets to look through the release.
- US Labour Market: A surprise drop in jobless claims reinforced confidence in labour market resilience.
- Fed Expectations: By week’s end, the probability of a March rate cut fell below 20%.
- US Retail Sales: Stronger-than-expected data supported the US dollar.
In the UK, GDP surprised to the upside, growing 0.3% in November, with October revised higher to flat. Sterling saw limited upside due to broad USD strength, but equities benefitted, with the UK market pushing to fresh record highs.
FX & Global Markets
Speculation around snap elections in Japan sent yields higher and the yen tumbling to 18-month lows early in the week. Weakness persisted despite verbal intervention from officials, while markets priced higher odds of a Q2 rate hike. On Friday, rumours of coordinated intervention by Japanese and US authorities helped stabilise USDJPY after it tested 159.50, consolidating near 158.00.
In China, the People's Bank of China surprised markets by cutting rates on secondary policy tools and lowering mortgage downpayment requirements to support the housing sector. The move followed a record annual trade surplus and boosted commodity-linked currencies, with AUD and NZD leading G10 gains.
Earnings & Corporate Developments
Early Thursday, TSMC delivered blockbuster earnings, announcing $52–56bn in capex—well above expectations—and highlighting relentless AI-chip demand from the US. The results reignited confidence in the AI theme, helping the Nasdaq recover earlier losses, though a broader rotation into value stocks saw the Dow outperform on the week.
Separately, the US and Taiwan agreed on a trade deal that could see up to $250bn invested in new US chipmaking facilities.
Biggest Market Movers
- AUD & NZD outperformed, supported by strong Chinese trade data
- Gold surged above $4,600/oz on safe-haven demand and Fed-independence concerns
- Silver broke $90/oz, reaching fresh all-time highs above $92
- UK equities posted consecutive record highs, lifted by miners and strong GDP
- Brent crude swung between $63–67, tracking Middle East headlines
- Bitcoin climbed to a 2-month high near $100k, fuelled by institutional demand and pro-crypto legislation rumours
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
- Geopolitical Risk: Iran remains the key wildcard for energy and risk sentiment
- Fed Independence: Focus on Powell succession headlines and Supreme Court developments
- Inflation Focus: CPI data across the US, UK, Japan, and Canada
- BOJ Decision: Rates expected unchanged despite above-target inflation and yen weakness
US: GDP & PCE in Focus
Thursday brings the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, expected to hold at 2.8% YoY, alongside confirmation of Q3 GDP at 4.3% annualised.
UK: Inflation Still Sticky
- Unemployment (Nov): Expected unchanged at 5.1%
- CPI (Dec): Headline seen easing to 3.1%, core unchanged
- Retail Sales (Dec): Forecast -0.2%, extending contraction
Earnings to Watch
Earnings season accelerates with results from:
- Netflix
- Johnson & Johnson
- Intel
- Procter & Gamble, GE Aerospace, 3M, Halliburton, United Airlines, Burberry, SLB
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Silver
Setup
Bullish - Uptrend pullback
- 9th bullish month (overbought)
- Rising trendline
- Bullish momentum
- Above 20/50/200 MAs
- RSI bullish
Commentary
Price remains in a strong uptrend albeit heavily overbought. The natural upside target is $100 per oz but there is likely to be considerable volatility on the way there.
Strategy
- Buy near former highs ~83.50
- Buy bullish candle formation
EUR/USD
Setup
Neutral - range market - possible top
- Monthly triangle pattern (or bull pennant)
- Daily chart looks like an incomplete H&S top
- Shallow rising trendline is support
- RSI support at 33
Commentary
This market could go either way from here - looking to trade inside the range until it breaks.
Strategy
- Buy touch of rising trendline
- Sell confirmed H&S top pattern
EUR/JPY
Setup
Bearish - Uptrend very overbought
- Monthly chart hit Fib extension level (resistance)
- Daily rising channel (broken?)
- False breakout above prior high (185.0)
- RSI bearish divergence
Commentary
The former range resistance at 24500/600 is now support if the breakout is to hold. After 5 green days above the breakout level - it looks confirmed. Can now wait for a dip from overbought territory to join the new uptrend.
Strategy
- Sell trendline break
- Sell rebound towards 185
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
