Technical Analysis: Week 4, 2026
(GBP/USD | GBP/JPY | UKO/USD)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
Week of January 26, 2026
Markets head into the final week of January with focus shifting away from early-year geopolitical shocks and back toward earnings, artificial intelligence profitability, and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Around one-fifth of the S&P 500 is set to report, while a midweek Fed decision adds a major macro catalyst to an already event-heavy calendar.
Week in Review
Geopolitical jitters fade, volatility lingers
US markets stumbled earlier in the week after President Trump’s aggressive rhetoric around acquiring Greenland briefly reignited fears of a trade dispute with Europe. The initial reaction was unusual, with equities, bonds, and the US dollar all selling off together. Sentiment improved later in the week after tariff threats were dialled back, easing immediate fears of escalation.
Earnings optimism underpins sentiment
Despite volatility, investor confidence has been supported by solid early earnings results. With only 59 companies reported so far, around 81% have beaten expectations, reinforcing hopes that corporate profits can justify elevated valuations.
Policy and politics intersect
Attention is also building around the Federal Reserve, not just for its rate decision, but amid renewed debate over its political independence following reports of pressure on Chair Jerome Powell and speculation over his successor.
Price Action
- Silver broke above $100 per oz for the 1st time
- Gold is just short of $5000 per oz
- AUD/USD is trading just short of 0.69 - its strongest since Sept ‘24
- EUR/USD is at a 3-month high
- USD/JPY slumped over 300 pips on Friday, after falling short of 160.0
- Crude oil is a 2 ½ month high
- S&P 500 at 6900, just below critical 7000
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
Earnings reality check
With roughly 20% of the S&P 500 reporting, results from mega-cap leaders will be decisive. Key names include Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla. Elevated valuations mean earnings and guidance must deliver.
AI: investment vs payoff
A defining theme this season is whether companies are starting to monetise massive AI investments. Investors want confirmation that spending on data centres and infrastructure is translating into revenue growth and margin expansion — particularly from Microsoft’s Azure and Meta’s AI-driven advertising tools.
Fed decision & independence
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% on Wednesday. Futures still price in at least one cut later in 2026, but attention will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s tone and any signal on political pressure or leadership changes.
Corporate Announcements & Earnings Calendar
Earnings Highlights
Tuesday, Jan 27
- Boeing, UnitedHealth, Texas Instruments, RTX, General Motors
Wednesday, Jan 28
- Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, IBM, AT&T
Thursday, Jan 29
- Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Caterpillar
Friday, Jan 30
- Exxon Mobil, Chevron, American Express, Verizon
Economic Calendar
United States
- Federal Reserve rate decision (Wed)
- Durable goods orders
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Jobless claims, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence
Europe
- Flash Q4 GDP for the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain
- Preliminary inflation data and key confidence surveys
Asia-Pacific
- China industrial profits and PMI data
- Japan BoJ minutes, Tokyo CPI, industrial production
- Australia CPI and business confidence
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
GBP/USD
Setup
Bullish - Uptrend breakout
- 3-month high
- Broke above down-channel
- Bull flag completed
- 200 SMA acted as support
- Strong resistance above from 1.37-38
- RSI bullish
Commentary
Risk to reward is not favourable after last week’s jump but a pullback and candlestick pattern continuation pattern could see the upside renewed during the week.
Strategy
- Await inside day breakout
- Buy pullback to broken channel
GBP/JPY
Setup
Bearish - overbought conditions in uptrend
- Monthly chart over-extended, reversal from 215 handle
- Possible double top on daily chart
- Rising trendline is support
- RSI support at 55
Commentary
The trend is still higher, but momentum is slowing - possibly setting up a deep correction.
Strategy
- Sell double top
- Sell break of rising trendline / RSI support
Brent crude oil (UKO/USD)
Setup
Bullish - monthly double bottom
- Monthly chart (candle not closed) showing bullish engulfing
- Double bottom at key $60 handle
- Price has closed above the 200 day SMA for 1st time since August
- Testing resistance above $66
- RSI has flipped bullish
Commentary
There is still a lot of resistance to overcome but the oil market appears to have bottomed, offering long opportunities between 66 and next resistance at 70.
Strategy
- Buy while over 66
- Buy pullback or inside day pattern after hitting 66.80 resistance
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
