Technical Analysis: Week 41, 2025
(Gold | SPX/USD | Bitcoin)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights. It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
📅 14 - 20 October 2025
Markets head into mid-October on edge after President Trump reignited the US–China trade war with a shock announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The move sent Wall Street tumbling on Friday, wiping out weeks of gains and sparking fears of a new wave of inflation and global supply disruption. With major UK data and US bank earnings up next, investors face a tense week ahead.
Week in Review
📰 News
Tariff shock rocks Wall Street:
What began as a quiet Friday turned into a bloodbath after President Trump unexpectedly announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting on 1 November 2025. The declaration — dropped via social media — blindsided markets and immediately revived memories of April’s ‘tariff tantrum’.
US indices slump:
The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Dow Jones lost 879 points, and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.6% — the worst single session since April. The sell-off wiped out all of October’s gains in a matter of hours, as traders rushed to de-risk ahead of the weekend.
Tech bears the brunt:
Semiconductor stocks led the decline, with AMD (-7.7%), Qualcomm (-7.3%), and NVIDIA (-4.9%) all sliding sharply. The sector, already sensitive to export controls and tariff risk, was hit by fresh concerns about supply chain exposure and a new antitrust probe from Beijing.
Shutdown and policy backdrop:
The US government shutdown dragged into its third week, halting the release of key data like CPI and NFP. Fed officials continued to stress that inflation is largely contained, though political gridlock and fiscal tensions are complicating the outlook for the next rate move.
Global political noise:
In Europe, French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned just 14 hours after announcing his new Cabinet, leaving President Macron to rebuild a government before the October 13 budget deadline.
In the Pacific, the RBNZ surprised with a 50bps cut, the NZD slid to six-month lows, and in Japan, uncertainty deepened after coalition partner Komeito withdrew support for the ruling LDP’s leadership candidate.
💹 Price Action
US equities:
Friday’s tariff announcement dominated the week. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all posted their sharpest one-day losses in months, reversing what had been a steady recovery since late September.
Gold:
Despite a big bearish engulfing daily candle on Thursday, gold rebounded on Friday to extend its winning streak to eight weeks, touching fresh record highs near $4,100/oz.
Oil:
Finished the week significantly lower after breaking below multi-month support (as we indicated could happen in last week’s technical analysis).
FX:
The USD firmed as investors sought safety (as we have alluded to in week 38 and back in week 29), while the yen weakened on domestic political uncertainty, and the NZD plunged after the central bank’s larger-than-expected rate cut.
Week Ahead
💭 Market Themes to Watch
- Tariff Shock Fallout: The 100% tariff threat is now the single biggest risk to sentiment — China’s response, if any, will dictate direction early in the week.
- Bank Earnings Tone: With markets rattled, tone from JPMorgan and Citi will be key in setting the mood for Q4.
- Data Delays: The US shutdown keeps inflation data uncertain — missing CPI would leave markets trading on expectations rather than facts.
- UK Stagnation Watch: Wages and GDP due this week will show whether Britain is slowing gently or stalling outright.
Corporate Announcements & Earnings Calendar
US Bank Earnings (Q3) – 14 Oct, Monday
Earnings season opens under heavy market pressure.
JPMorgan Chase – Focus on trading revenue and net interest income outlook after Q2 revenue of $45.7bn.
Citigroup – Updates on restructuring and equities performance after strong Q2 results.
Wells Fargo – Domestic exposure makes it sensitive to softer lending and narrowing margins.
A cautious tone from executives could deepen last week’s sell-off, while resilient numbers might help stabilise sentiment.
Economic Calendar
UK Wages & Unemployment (Aug) – 14 Oct, Monday
Wages expected to remain strong at 4.8%, keeping inflation pressures alive and making near-term BoE rate cuts unlikely.
UK GDP (Aug) – 16 Oct, Wednesday
Modest 0.1% rebound expected after July’s flat reading, with manufacturing still weak but services holding up.
Other key data this week
- Monday: China trade balance
- Tuesday: RBA minutes
- Wednesday: China CPI
- Thursday: US retail sales (if not delayed by the shutdown)
- Friday: Eurozone CPI and US housing starts
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.
Gold
Setup
Bullish with high momentum: Possible correction coming
- A 5% pullback from current levels = $3850
- A 10% pullback = 3700
Signal
Early signs of correction from very overbought conditions
- Bearish engulfing candle around key $4K level
- Inside bar - look for false break higher or break lower under tweezer bottom
SPX (SPX/USD)
Setup
Bullish. Correction: Large bearish engulfing weekly candle
- Need the weekly low to hold for quick rebound
- A break of the weekly low could mean end of the uptrend
Signal
The 4 month old trendline has broken.
- Price has landed at a demand zone under 6500 (could rebound from here)
- Next supports found at matching lows of 6350 then 6200
Bitcoin
Setup
Bullish. Correction
- Bearish engulfing candle (but long lower wick)
- False breakout after record high over $125,000.
Signal
Price has rebounded from demand zone around 104,000
Looking for similar drop from supply zone near 120,000
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us OR send us a request!
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Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
