Technical Analysis: Week 43, 2025
(XAG/USD | NASDAQ | EUR/JPY)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights. It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
28 October – 3 November 2025
Markets brace for a pivotal week as four major central banks meet and heavyweight tech giants release earnings.
With the US government shutdown still delaying key data, traders are flying blind into one of the busiest weeks of the quarter. All eyes will be on the FOMC’s rate decision midweek, while ECB, BOJ, and BOC policy will be the basis for Fed comparisons.
Biggest Market Movers
- Gold plunged from record highs in its steepest one-day drop in 12 years amid easing trade tensions and profit-taking. Silver followed suit.
- Oil prices rebounded despite oversupply warnings, supported by US–Russia tensions and speculation that India and the US may halt Russian crude purchases.
- JPY weakened sharply as investors reacted to Japan’s more dovish leadership stance.
- Nasdaq hit a fresh record high
Week In Review
Shutdown drags on:
The US government shutdown continued to distort the macro landscape, delaying vital releases like CPI and GDP. Fed policymakers, however, appear confident enough in secondary indicators such as ADP and ISM to proceed with easing this week.
UK inflation cools, retail surprises:
Headline CPI in the UK held steady at 3.8%, below forecasts for a rise to 4.0%. Core inflation slipped to 3.5%, the lowest in seven months. Retail sales, however, defied expectations with a 0.5% monthly gain, pushing markets to price in a 50-50 chance of a BOE rate cut before year-end.
China’s GDP underwhelms:
Q3 GDP rose 4.8%, missing forecasts and underscoring sluggish domestic demand. However, quarterly growth accelerated modestly to 1.1%.
Japan gets new PM:
Inflation printed in line with expectations at 2.9%, while political clarity emerged after Sanae Takaishi was appointed Japan’s new Prime Minister, signaling a more dovish fiscal policy stance.
US & India trade:
The US and India reportedly are near a tariff reduction deal, while the White House imposed fresh sanctions on two Russian oil firms, further straining relations with Moscow.
Week Ahead
🇺🇸 FOMC Rate Meeting – 29 Oct
Even without critical jobs or inflation data, consensus is for a 25bps rate cut.
Growth remains solid near 4% annualized, and inflation is sticky (core CPI 3.1%, headline 2.9%).
Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized gradual easing to address job softness but ruled out aggressive cuts, while newcomer Stephen Miran continues to echo President Trump’s rhetoric.
Market View:
- Cut odds: >97%
- USD may remain firm if the Fed maintains a cautious tone.
- Gold support: $3950, resistance: $4190–$4300
🇪🇺 ECB Rate Meeting – 30 Oct
No change expected as inflation edges up — headline 2.2%, core 2.4%.
Several policymakers, including Wunsch, Scicluna, and Villeroy de Galhau, have ruled out further cuts.
The euro’s 10% YTD rally versus USD helps contain imported inflation.
Market View:
- Rates steady, but guidance may tilt dovish if Eurozone CPI softens Friday.
- EUR/USD range: 1.1545–1.1700
🇨🇦 BOC Rate Decision – 30 Oct
Markets expect a 25bps cut, though recent inflation data may prompt a pause.
A surprise hold could spark CAD strength and push USDCAD below 1.3925, with resistance near 1.4100.
🇯🇵 BOJ Meeting – 30 Oct
No policy shift expected, but PM Takaishi’s fiscal plans could influence tone.
With USDJPY hovering near multi-decade highs, the BOJ’s stance could test 154.00 resistance or trigger a reversal toward 152.00–151.50.
Corporate Earnings
HSBC (Q3 2025) – 28 Oct
- Focus on credit losses after $2.1bn impairment in Q2.
- H1 profits down 30% to $12.44bn; NIM slipped to 1.57%.
With buybacks suspended for the Hang Seng Bank acquisition, watch for updates on ECL provisions and Hong Kong property exposure.
Microsoft (Q1 FY26) – 29 Oct
- Revenues: $76.4bn (+18%); Net income: $27.2bn (+24%).
- Azure up 39%, total FY revenue $281.7bn, net income $101.8bn.
- Expected to spend $30bn this quarter building AI capacity — an annualized $120bn run rate.
Meta Platforms (Q3 2025) – 29 Oct
- Q2 revenue: $47.5bn (+22%), net income $18.3bn (+36%).
- Capex guidance lifted to $66–72bn.
- Q3 revenue expected $47.5–50.5bn; focus on AI monetization progress.
Alphabet (Q3 2025) – 29 Oct
- Q2 revenue $96.4bn, net income $28.2bn.
- Cloud revenue up 30%+, YouTube at $9.8bn.
- Capex raised to $85bn; potential to break $100bn quarterly revenue for first time.
Apple (Q4 2025) – 30 Oct
- Q3 revenue $94bn, net income $23.4bn.
- Strong iPhone and Mac demand; iPads and wearables weaker.
- Gross margin 46–47%, including $1.1bn tariff hit.
- Long-term boost expected from $100bn US investment plan.
Amazon (Q3 2025) – 30 Oct
- Q2 sales $167.7bn, profits $18.2bn.
- AWS revenue +17.5% but margins tightening.
- Q3 guidance $174–179.5bn, operating income $15–20.5bn.
- AWS outage and cautious tone weighed on shares post-results.
Economic Data
- Mon 28: German Ifo business climate
- Tue 29: US Consumer Confidence, UK Mortgage Data
- Wed 30: FOMC decision, Australian CPI, Japanese Consumer Confidence
- Thu 31: ECB & BOJ meetings, Eurozone Industrial Sentiment
- Fri 1: Eurozone CPI (flash), China PMI, Japanese Jobs Data
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Setup
- Bull market - steep pullback
Commentary
It’s possible this is the top given the jump in downside volatility - i.e. long down candles. But there isn’t enough evidence yet and the trend is still up.
Strategy
Buy the dip at
- Demand zone 46-47.50
- Wait for steeper drop to demand zone at 44 (near 50-day MA)
Nasdaq 100
Setup
Bull market - breakout to record high
- Price has closed the week above 25,000
- Was a bullish breakout from inside week
Commentary
It has paid off to stay bullish US indices and that continues to be our plan. However since the trend is mature, we prefer buying pullbacks vs breakouts.
Strategy
- Buy pullback back to breakout zone around 25,200
- Buy next pullback to rising trendline
NOTE: Watch out for a 2nd steep drop back under 25K- would be a warning that the uptrend could break.
EUR/JPY
Setup
Bull market - breakout
- Highest weekly close in multiple years
Commentary
Price has now reached the full objective of the double bottom pattern at 155. While we did see a knee jerk sell off, price is back at the highs again- suggesting continued bullish momentum.
Strategy
- Buy dips to 176
- Fade the highs over 178
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us OR send us a request!
Trade with WeTrade!
Every position closed is one step closer to unlocking WeTrade Honours privileges and redeeming exclusive rewards.
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
