Technical Analysis: Week 8, 2026
(Brent crude | Silver | NZD/USD)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
Week of February 23, 2026
This past week, geopolitics seized the driver’s seat as Brent crude broke $70/bbl on rumors of potential US military action in Iran, pushing markets into a distinct "risk-off" mode.
While a US Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s tariffs provided a brief relief rally for stocks, the focus now shifts to Nvidia's "AI vibe check" earnings on Wednesday and Friday’s inflation double-whammy (EU CPI and US PPI).
Week in Review
News & Macro
- Geopolitical Tensions Escalate
Oil prices surged with Brent breaking above $70/bbl (a 6% weekly gain) as markets braced for a potential US military strike on Iran following the brief closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold reclaimed the $5,050 level as risk aversion spiked. - Supreme Court Tariff Shocker
A Friday ruling by the US Supreme Court striking down President Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs initially lifted stocks, though investors remain wary of how the administration will pivot to alternative trade duties. - Fed Divide & Hawkish Shift
FOMC minutes revealed a growing rift between hawks and doves. Recent Trump appointee Stephen Miran signaled less reason for rate cuts, causing June easing odds to slide from 70% to 60%. - UK Disinflation vs. Weak Labor
The UK saw a "good news/bad news" data dump: unemployment hit a five-year high of 5.2%, but inflation cooled to a two-year low of 3.0%. Markets are now pricing a 90% chance of a BOE cut in March. - Japan Stalls
Japan’s Q4 GDP grew by a measly 0.1% (missing the 0.5% forecast). Combined with core inflation falling back to target, expectations for a near-term BOJ rate hike have largely evaporated.
Price Action Snapshot
- FTSE 100: Hit a record high, breaking above 10,700.
- USD/JPY: Trending higher toward 158 on BOJ dovishness.
- EUR/USD: Testing critical support at 1.1750
- Gold: Volatile week; dipped below $4,850 before rallying to $5,100.
- Crude Oil (Brent): Surpassed $70/bbl on Middle East conflict fears.
- US Dollar: Ended the week higher on risk-off flows and hawkish Fed rhetoric.
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
- The "Two-Week" Iran Window
Geopolitics will dominate as markets monitor reports of a limited US military operation. Trump has signaled a desire for resolution within two weeks, keeping energy markets on a knife-edge. - The AI "Bellwether" Test
Nvidia reports this week. As the world’s largest company by market cap, its results are now seen as a macro indicator for the entire "AI hyperscaler" ecosystem and broader market sentiment. - European Inflation
Flash February CPI readings from France and Germany on Friday will dictate if the ECB can maintain its current policy. ECB President Lagarde’s recent "baseline" commitment to finish her term (despite WEF rumors) provides some leadership stability. - US PPI & Inflation Persistence
With the Fed divided, Friday’s US PPI data is crucial. Any upside surprise would support the hawkish view that rates must stay "higher for longer," potentially boosting the USD.
Corporate & Earnings Calendar
Earnings Highlights: Nvidia (NVDA)
Reporting fiscal Q4 results on Wednesday. Analysts expect a 71% rise in EPS on $65.9B revenue. CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary on customer capital spending will be the primary driver for the "Magnificent Seven" and AI-linked software stocks.
Other Notable Reports:
- Tech/Software: Salesforce, Intuit, Dell, WPP.
- Retail/Staples: Home Depot, Lowe's, Diageo.
- Industrial/Other: Rolls-Royce, Stellantis, IAG, Berkshire Hathaway.
Economic Calendar
Monday 23 Feb
- China/Japan: Markets closed for holidays (slow start expected).
- Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index.
Tuesday 24 Feb
- China: Loan Prime Rate (LPR) fixings.
- USA: President Trump’s State of the Union address (Evening).
Wednesday 25 Feb
- Australia: Monthly CPI Indicator (Expectation: 3.1%).
- Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence.
Thursday 26 Feb
- Eurozone: Economic Sentiment & Consumer Confidence.
- USA: Jobless Claims.
Friday 27 Feb
- Europe: Flash February CPI (Germany & France).
- USA: Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Canada: Q4 GDP Growth.
- Japan: Retail Sales.
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Brent crude oil (UKO/USD)
Setup
Bullish - downtrend reversal
- Broke $70 round number
- Hit 6-month high
- Held above 200 SMA as support
- Above 20/50 SMAs
Commentary
After consolidating under the critical $70 level, Brent crude has broken higher. It is now testing the neckline of a double bottom on the monthly chart. A break higher from here could usher in a new long term uptrend.
Strategy
- Buy pullback towards 70.0
- Buy break to new highs
Silver (XAG/USD)
Setup
Bullish - end of correction
- Long term uptrend in tact
- Now positive for the month again after large drawdown
- Previous swing highs (85, 90) are resistance
- Price above 200 SMA
Commentary
There is still resistance at $85 then $90 per oz, but silver is showing early signs of a bullish shift in momentum after breaking a down-trendline in the direction of the long term uptrend. $70 is critical support.
Strategy
- Buy dip to 80
- Wait for a clear break over 90.
Kiwi dollar (NZD/USD)
Setup
Bullish - trend continuation
- 25,000 round number big resistance
- Monthly price range looks like continuation pattern, not reversal
- Looking for next impulsive move up after correction
- Price above 20/50/200 day SMAs
Commentary
The kiwi is consolidating in a sideways correction after touching multi-month resistance at 0.61. The 0.585-0.59 zone is the ‘golden pocket’ of Fibonacci retracements, and could mark the bottom of the correction.
Strategy
- Buy dip to 0.59
- Buy dip to 0.585
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
