Technical Analysis: Week 6, 2026
(Dow Jones | NZD/USD | Bitcoin)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
Week of February 9, 2026
It was a volatile week across multiple markets with a huge sell-off in cryptocurrencies alongside some double digit reactions to Big Tech earnings results. Gold and silver remain very volatile following last week’s epic sell-off.
The focus now turns to a high-impact combo of US labour + inflation data, key earnings across software and defensive sectors, and the market’s reaction to Japan’s snap election outcome.
Week in Review
News
Japan votes in rare mid-winter snap election
Voters braved heavy snow on Feb 8 in Japan's first mid-winter election in 36 years, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap vote to secure a mandate soon after winning party leadership. Polls suggested the LDP coalition with the Japanese Innovation Party could win up to 300 of 465 seats, a major turnaround after the LDP previously lost its majority amid corruption scandals and rising costs. Snow disruption hit transport and likely pressured turnout.
Bitcoin volatility: Sharp rout followed by recovery
Crypto markets experienced extreme volatility with Bitcoin plunging to $60,000 before staging a sharp rebound back to $70,000. The selloff reflected broader risk-off sentiment and coincided with the tech shakeout, as crypto lost Trump-era gains amid heightened market uncertainty.
Wall Street: AI-driven tech shakeout keeps investors on edge
US markets were dominated by a deepening rout in software stocks as investors questioned how far AI could upend business models. A rebound into Friday saw the Dow cross 50,000 for the first time, helped by a surge in semiconductors, but the bigger story remained a rotation away from tech leadership.
USD correction, JPY weakness, and stable Fed-cut pricing
The US dollar rose vs most G10 (except AUD and NZD), framed as a technical correction after an overstretched sell-off. The yen was weakest in G10, down about 1.5%, as intervention fear faded into the Japan election. Markets continued to expect the Fed to hold off on further cuts until June, with roughly two quarter-point cuts by December still priced.
Price Action
- Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time on Friday
- Bitcoin plunged to $60,000 before rebounding sharply
- Gold posted small weekly gain despite massive volatility
- Crude oil surged over $70 per barrel
- S&P 500 software index tumbled 15% in just over a week
- Stoxx 600 recorded 7th positive week in eight, near record highs
- USD rose vs G10 (except AUD/NZD); DXY approached 98.00
- JPY weakest in G10, falling ~1.5%
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
Does the USD correction extend?
Momentum signals suggest the USD rebound may still have room to run, but US jobs (Feb 11) and US CPI are the tests that can either validate the move or reverse it.
Is the crypto bottom in?
Big bullish reversal patterns across cryptocurrencies suggest fresh demand has returned but maybe crypto still lacks a bullish narrative since the creation of the ETFs.
JPY sensitivity after the Japan election
With the election seen as a potential mandate moment, USD/JPY becomes the key release valve—especially with intervention fear having faded and technicals pointing higher.
Tech vs rotation
Even if “old economy” sectors keep attracting inflows, the S&P 500’s heavy tech weight means continued software stress can cap index upside.
Europe’s resilience
European equities remain comparatively stable, with major earnings still in focus across banks, healthcare and industrial leaders.
Corporate Announcements & Earnings Calendar
Earnings Highlights
Europe:
- Monday: UniCredit
- Tuesday: Philips, AstraZeneca, Barclays, Ferrari
- Wednesday: TotalEnergies, Heineken, Commerzbank
- Thursday: Mercedes, Siemens, L’Oréal
- Friday: NatWest
US:
- AppLovin, Datadog (software/AI sentiment)
- Coca-Cola, Cisco, McDonald’s (defensives + enterprise tone)
Economic Calendar
Monday: Japan: Dec labour earnings (early Monday), Dec current account
Tuesday: Australia: household spending (Dec)
Wednesday (Feb 11):
- US: delayed January Nonfarm Payrolls (median ~+70k)
- China: CPI & PPI
- China: lending figures (watch for signs of slowing credit)
Thursday: UK Q4 GDP (median ~+0.1%)
Friday: US CPI expected softer (headline/core seen +0.2% / +0.3% m/m; y/y headline implied ~2.4% from 2.7%)
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Dow Jones (U30/USD)
Setup
Bullish - Breakout to record high
- Breakout over 50,000 to all time high
- Breakout from tight price range
- Support from rising trendline under recent lows (and 20/50 SMAs)
- Wedge pattern could eventually be bearish
- 200 day SMA much lower under 46,000
Commentary
Risk to reward is not favourable after Friday’s slump - and the market remains volatile. It seems likely the trend is over for now and a period of choppy sideways trading will begin. A strategy of ‘fading the extremes’ is one possibility.
Strategy
- Buy breakout of last week’s high
- Buy pullback to 50,000
New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD)
Setup
Bearish - trend reversal
- Monthly chart reversal at resistance
- Double bottom on monthly chart is bullish
- Price above 20/50/200 SMA
Commentary
There is strong bullish momentum in the kiwi but it has sold off from the 0.61 resistance (last year’s high). Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern with a close back over the key 0.60 level suggests the correction could be over.
Strategy
- Buy dip to 0.60
- Buy breakout over 0.61
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Setup
Bearish - rebound
- Monthly chart (candle not closed) shows break below 75k support
- Price down for past 5 months
- Former support at 75k is now resistance
- Daily chart oversold - further rebound due
- Bullish piercing pattern on daily chart
- Price below 20/50/200 day SMAs
Commentary
The sell-off in Bitcoin intensified last week but reversed sharply on Friday as buyers came in at 60,000. We can envisage another attempted break lower that fails, setting up a move up to 75,000 resistance.
Strategy
- Buy ‘fakie’ pattern below Saturday’s inside bar
- Sell on bearish signal near 75k
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
