Technical Analysis: Week 10, 2026
(USD/CAD | NZD/USD | G40/EUR)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
This past week, the market's "risk-off" switch was flipped hard as the US-Israeli campaign against Iran entered its seventh day, sending Brent crude screaming past $94/bbl following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A surprisingly weak February US jobs report added a recessionary wrinkle to the mix.
The focus now pivots to a high-stakes week ahead where the narrative must balance a war in the Middle East against a Wednesday CPI print that will reveal if inflation is resurging just as energy costs explode.
Week in Review
News & Macro
Operation "Epic Fury" & Oil Shock Geopolitics dominated every headline as the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Brent crude surged over 36% for the week, ending north of $94/bbl, as the paralyzed Strait of Hormuz cut off a fifth of the world’s energy supply.
US Labor Market Cracks Friday’s nonfarm payrolls showed a shock contraction of 92,000 jobs (vs. 60,000 expected gain), pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%. The data revived hopes for Fed easing, but these were immediately countered by fears that skyrocketing oil will keep inflation sticky.
The VIX Returns Market anxiety hit its highest level since April 2025. The VIX (volatility index) surged as investors grappled with the lack of clarity in Iran and the potential for a "prolonged war".
China’s Modest Ambitions At the National People's Congress, Beijing set a growth target of 4.5-5.0%, its lowest since 1991. This suggests that the world’s second-largest economy is bracing for a difficult year, even before accounting for the disruption to fuel imports caused by the Middle East crisis.
Price Action Snapshot
- Brent Crude: High of $94.55 (Best weekly performance in four years).
- US Dollar Index: Posted its largest weekly gain in a year on safe-haven flows.
- EUR/USD: Plunged under 1.16
- USD/JPY: Back over 158 (super volatile range 152-158)
- Gold: Volatile; peaked at $5,400 before testing $5,100 as support
- S&P 500: -2.0% (off its January highs).
- Nasdaq Composite: -1.2% (buffeted by a rotation out of tech into defensives).
- US 10-Year Yield: Up 4.6%
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
Strait of Hormuz & Naval Escorts The US has offered risk insurance and naval escorts for ships in the Strait. Success here is the only thing standing between the global economy and $100 oil. Watch for Trump’s promised "further measures" to alleviate supply.
CPI: The Reality Check (Wednesday) February’s CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m. However, since this data covers the period before the Iran escalation, the market may view it as "old news" unless there is a massive upside surprise that suggests inflation was already heating up.
The Fed Blackout The Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout period this week. This means no "Fed-speak" to calm the markets; traders will be left to interpret the data and war headlines entirely on their own.
China’s Trade Surplus (Tuesday) With a meeting between Trump and Xi looming later this month, Tuesday’s trade data will be scrutinized for how China is weathering current tariffs and whether international trade is actually recovering.
UK’s Sluggish Growth (Friday) January GDP is expected to remain flat at 0.1%. The BOE is in a corner: low growth says "cut," but surging energy prices from the Suez Canal disruptions scream "hold."
Corporate & Earnings Calendar
Earnings season is winding down, but key software and consumer names remain:
- Oracle (ORCL): A major test for the enterprise software and cloud-AI narrative.
- Adobe (ADBE): Will provide further insight into AI-disruption fears in the creative space.
- Other notable reports: Lennar (Housing), Robert Walters, Balfour Beatty
Economic Calendar
Monday 09 Mar
- China: CPI & PPI (Feb) – Looking for signs of persistent disinflation.
Tuesday 10 Mar
- China: Trade Balance (Feb) – Expected surplus jump to $165B.
- Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence & NAB Business Confidence.
Wednesday 11 Mar
- USA: Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Expected 2.4% YoY.
- Japan: PPI (Feb).
Thursday 12 Mar
- USA: Housing Starts & Initial Jobless Claims.
Friday 13 Mar
- UK: GDP (Jan) & Industrial Production.
- USA: Core PCE (Jan) – Delayed release; expected at 3.0%.
- Canada: Employment Change & Unemployment Rate.
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Loonie (USD/CAD)
Setup
Bearish - possible break of long term support
- January and February both found support at 1.35 round number
- Next major support is 1.32
- February formed indecisive ‘spinning top’ candle
- Daily chart is in a downtrend, under down-trendline
- Price has dropped down from 61.8% Fib of drop from 1.39
- Price below 20/50/200 SMAs
Strategy
- Sell below 1.36
- Sell break of 1.35
Kiwi (NZD/USD)
Setup
Bearish - trend continuation
- Last 2 months have pulled back from big up-month in January
- Major resistance at 0.61, major support at 0.585
- Daily chart shows possible bull flag
- Price has retraced 50% of rally from 0.56-0.61
- Price found support at 200 SMA
Strategy
- Buy bottom of bull flag
- Buy breakout of bull flag
DAX 40 (D40/EUR)
Setup
Bearish - rebound
- Monthly chart (incomplete) shows bearish engulfing pattern
- Possible false breakout of 25,000 round number
- Daily chart has completed a double top pattern (Neckline 24,400)
- Price below 20/50/200 day SMAs
Commentary
The long term uptrend in EUR/GBP looks to be resuming after a bullish month and inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart
Strategy
- Sell rebound to 24,000 or 200 SMA
- Sell break of last week’s low
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
