Technical Analysis: Week 9, 2026
(U30/USD | USD/CHF | EUR/GBP)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
Week of March 2, 2026
Markets head into the first week of March in risk-off mode, with the Iran shock taking center stage after the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran. The immediate transmission channels are clear: oil-supply risk, safe-haven demand (gold + USD), and a new major global conflict to add on top of lingering AI-disruption anxiety across stock markets.
Gold was already firm last week, printing a three-week high near and settling just under $5,200 - and now faces a fresh catalyst as markets reopen. Likewise, oil has potentially put in a long term bottom, having reached highs not seen since August on Friday (Remember our bullish setup for Brent last week?)
Week in Review
News
Iran escalation becomes the macro driver:
Weekend developments in the Middle East have pushed investors to price a wider conflict risk, with attention on energy infrastructure, shipping routes, and any threat to supply flows. The market’s first instinct is likely hedging: higher oil risk premium, stronger havens, and defensive equity positioning.
Oil whipsawed into the weekend:
Crude was already swinging through the week during the third round of US–Iran nuclear talks. While no deal was reached, continued dialogue helped calm immediate fears—yet US military buildup kept a floor under Brent. Now
Tariffs and policy uncertainty linger:
Markets began the week digesting the U.S. Supreme Court decision rescinding “Liberation Day” tariffs, followed by Trump’s reimposition of 15% global tariffs under a different statute—another layer of uncertainty for growth and inflation expectations.
AI narrative: rotation continues:
The Nasdaq rallied into Nvidia earnings, but the market struggled to hold gains even after very solid numbers—reinforcing that investors are still wrestling with who wins vs. who gets disrupted by AI.
- Dell surged on stronger AI server demand
- Block jumped after Jack Dorsey signaled a major AI pivot and large workforce cuts
- Broader tech remained sensitive to “AI disruption” headlines
Price Action
- Gold close week at 1-month high (>5250)
- Silver 1-month high
- Brent crude - highest since June
- WTI crude - highest since August
- GBP/USD closes week under 1.35 / has retraced 50% of 1.30-1.385 rally
- AUD/USD closes week over 0.71 - a 3 year high
- EUR/GBP hits 3-month high
- Dow Jones prints monthly shooting star doji
- FTSE 100 Hits record high (nears 11,000)
- Nikkei 225 Hits 60,000 for 1st time
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
Iran Shock & the Energy Channel:
Markets will react first through oil and then through inflation expectations → rates → equity multiples. If crude gaps higher and holds, expect:
- Gold supported (hedge demand)
- USD stronger (safety + rate repricing)
- Equities under pressure, especially growth stocks
Gold Levels in Focus:
With gold already holding above ~$5,200, the next big upside zone sits around $5,400. On the downside, key support remains the $5,000 handle.
Oil Volatility & Inflation Repricing:
If the market starts pricing any risk to flows/routes, oil can re-rate quickly—feeding into expectations for central banks to stay restrictive longer.
AI Disruption Anxiety (Still Running Under the Tape):
Even if geopolitics dominates headlines, AI remains the internal market debate: the rotation dynamic suggests investors will keep repricing winners vs. losers in real time, and tech could stay headline-sensitive.
Corporate & Earnings Calendar
Earnings season is mostly done, but key reports can still move sectors:
CrowdStrike, AutoZone, Broadcom, Costco, Marvell, Kier, Reckitt Benckiser, Smith & Nephew
Alibaba is widely expected this week (unconfirmed).
Broadcom stands out as a sentiment read-through for semis and AI infrastructure—especially important while AI narratives remain unstable.
Economic Calendar
Monday: Global PMIs (growth tone check), UK Nationwide house prices
Tuesday: UK Spring Economic Statement
Wednesday: ADP employment (watch for labor cooling), Japan consumer sentiment
Thursday: Australia trade balance, China National People’s Congress begins (growth target focus)
Friday: US NFP (Feb) + US retail sales (Jan), Eurozone CPI context continues, Canada Ivey PMI
US NFP (Friday): Another beat or a cooling print?
- NFP expected ~70K after 130K
- Unemployment expected 4.3%
Eurozone CPI & ECB stance:
Flash Euro Area CPI is expected to cool (headline seen ~1.7% vs 2.0%), while core is seen steadier (~2.2%).
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Dow Jones (U30/USD)
Setup
Bearish - possible correction coming
- February closed flat - after rejecting 50,000 level
- Tight price action around 49,000
- Near term rising trendline is current support
- Wedge pattern is bearish
- Price below 20/50 SMAs - above 200 SMA
Commentary
The trend is still higher but there are signs momentum is waning and further upside could be limited. We suspect long term bearish positioning around 50,000 could bring about a pullback - perhaps back to the 200 SMA.
Strategy
- Sell trendline break
- Sell near term bounce
Dollar-Swiss franc (USD/CHF)
Setup
Bearish - trend continuation
- Monthly chart shows continued downtrend
- February was an inside bar - the breakout should determine near term direction
- 0.78 is holding as resistance
- Daily chart shows triangle / bear flag pattern
- Price below 20/50/200 SMA
Commentary
There is strong bullish momentum in the kiwi but it has sold off from the 0.61 resistance (last year’s high). Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern with a close back over the key 0.60 level suggests the correction could be over.
Strategy
- Sell trendline break
- Sell break below February’s low
Euro-Sterling (EUR/GBP)
Setup
Bearish - rebound
- Monthly chart completed bullish engulfing pattern
- First monthly gain in 3 months - correction from bullish trend looks finished
- Rebound started at 38.2% retracement of rally from 0.82
- Long upper wick after breakout adds some uncertainty around the breakout of 0.875
- Price above 20/50/200 day SMAs
Commentary
The long term uptrend in EUR/GBP looks to be resuming after a bullish month and inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart
Strategy
- Buy while above 0.875
- Buy another pullback under 0.87
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
