Technical Analysis: Week 5, 2026
(Gold | USD/JPY | Hang Seng)
Welcome to your weekly edge in the markets with clear, actionable insights.
It’s split into two parts:
- Week Ahead – An overview of current market conditions, previewing the week ahead.
- Technical Analysis – our top 3 trade ideas for the week, complete with charts and key levels to watch.
Week Ahead
Week of February 2, 2026
Markets head into the first full week of February facing a triple whammy of mega-cap earnings, global central bank decisions, and critical US jobs data. Volatility surged late last week as geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and uneven corporate results triggered sharp reversals across currencies, commodities, and equities - particularly in gold and silver that both saw large swathes of recent gains wiped out on Friday.
With US non-farm payrolls, rate decisions from Australia, the UK, and the eurozone, and earnings from Alphabet and Amazon all due, investors are bracing for another high-impact week.
Week in Review
📰 News
Earnings jitters hit Big Tech
US equities struggled after disappointing cloud revenue from Microsoft saw the stock plummet, reinforcing concerns that expectations for AI-driven growth have become stretched. In contrast, Meta Platforms delivered strong sales, helping lift the stock double digits.
Fed holds, tone turns hawkish
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected, but the statement and press conference signalled reduced concern about the labour market and a greater focus on inflation risks. Markets now price the next rate cut no earlier than June.
Trump rattles FX and commodities
US President Donald Trump fuelled market volatility by signalling support for a weaker dollar early in the week, sending the greenback to four-year lows. Later, escalating rhetoric toward Iran and reports of increased US military presence in the Middle East drove sharp moves in oil and precious metals.
Safe havens whipsaw
Gold surged to nearly $5,600/oz and silver briefly jumped above $120, before both erased most of their gains after reports confirmed Trump’s nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair — a notably hawkish pick.
Price Action
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- Silver gave back a 19% weekly gain in one session
- Gold managed a small weekly gain despite massive volatility
- Crude oil surged over $70 per barrel
- The US dollar index (DXY) had worst daily loss since April
- AUD/USD & NZD/USD surged alongside commodities
- S&P 500 hit 7000before pulling back
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong) reached 28k, highest since 2021
Week Ahead
Market Themes to Watch
Mega-cap earnings stress test
Results from Alphabet and Amazon will be pivotal in shaping sentiment around AI investment, cloud demand, and capital spending. With expectations elevated, even solid growth may not be enough to satisfy markets.
Jobs data in focus
Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show job growth of around 65–70k, with unemployment holding near 4.4%. Any downside surprise could quickly revive rate-cut expectations.
Central banks take the stage
- RBA: Markets expect a rate hike after hot inflation and strong employment data.
- BOE: A hold is anticipated, but the vote split and Governor Bailey’s tone could drive GBP volatility.
- ECB: Rates are expected to remain unchanged, though officials may push back against recent euro strength.
Geopolitical risk premium
Developments in the Middle East remain a wildcard, with markets sensitive to any escalation that could impact energy supply or risk sentiment.
Corporate Announcements & Earnings Calendar
Earnings Highlights
Technology & AI: Alphabet, Amazon, Palantir, AMD, Qualcomm, Super Micro Computer
Healthcare: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, AbbVie, Merck
Consumer & Media: Walt Disney, PepsiCo, PayPal, Uber
Energy & Materials: ConocoPhillips, Shell, Barrick Mining
UK names: GSK, Vodafone, Anglo American
Economic Calendar
Monday: China PMI
Tuesday: RBA rate decision, US JOLTS
Wednesday: US ISM Services PMI
Thursday: BOE & ECB rate decisions, German factory orders
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls, Canadian jobs data
Technical Analysis
We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and strategies.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Setup
Bullish - Uptrend reversal
- Huge profit-taking sell-off from overbought levels
- Price has found temporary support in 20/50 SMA zone
- Price back below $5000 per oz
- Rising trendline support lower at 4500
- 200 day SMA much lower at 3800
Commentary
Risk to reward is not favourable after Friday’s slump - and the market remains volatile. It seems likely the trend is over for now and a period of choppy sideways trading will begin. A strategy of ‘fading the extremes’ is one possibility.
Strategy
- Sell a return towards prior highs
- Buy pullback to second rising trendline
USD/JPY
Setup
Bearish - trend reversal
- Monthly chart reversal at resistance
- Fakeout at 158
- 600-pip sell-off in 3 days
- Below 50 day SMA
- RSI support at 55
Commentary
Trend trading strategies are unlikely to work with price now well below the 50 day SMA but without having yet established a new downtrend with lower highs and lows. Plan is to look for reversals trades either from 153 or 158.
Strategy
- Sell double top
- Sell break of rising trendline / RSI support
Hang Seng (H33/HKD)
Setup
Bullish - breakout
- Monthly chart (candle not closed) showing bullish breakout
- Highest price since 2021
- Former resistance at 27,200-300 is now potential support
- Price is testing broken resistance
- Price above 20/50/200 day SMAs
Commentary
A false breakout is still possible but it appears that blue chip Hong Kong stocks are breaking out. The height of the broken range was 2000 points, suggesting 2000 points possible upside after the breakout.
Strategy
- Buy while over 27,200
- Buy breakout of 28K
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas OR send us a request!
Cheers,
Jasper
Disclaimer:
The communication does not constitute investment or trading advice, nor does it include any recommendations. Additionally, it does not serve as an offer or solicitation to engage in transactions involving financial instruments. WeTrade does not take responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided, nor for any outcomes that may occur as a result of the actions taken.
